Whatever Sabonis is accustomed, he'll probably get in Portland

He's coming.

Now what?

Arvydas Sabonis told the world that he wants to join the Trail Blazers,
nine years after they drafted him. What he didn't say was what it would
take to get him to Portland, a city he didn't really like the first time
he visited.

It's obvious that Sabonis wouldn't have made his announcement unless 
there was some preliminary understanding had been reached about how much 
the Blazers will pay him and for how many years. Nothing that prohibits 
the Blazers from negotiating directly with Sabonis and his many agents, 
and nothing to prevents them from reaching tentative agreement on a 
contract.

Sabonis will not sign until after July 1 unless there is a new 
collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and the players' union 
is in place. Since Because there is only a slim chance of that happening, 
expect some continuation of the current system that will allow teams to 
sign draft choices, free agents and 7-foot-3 Lithuanians.

If the old rules are retained, the Blazers expect to use a $2.6 million
salary slot last occupied by Terry Porter. There is a way that they can
give Sabonis more than $2.6 million during his first year, which will be
explained shortly. The Blazers will have a hard time making up the tax-
free, luxury-filled lifestyle that Sabonis is accustomed to in Europe -- 
any and all compensation counts under the salary cap.

Gone, never forgotten

In all the commotion about Sabonis, one sad fact has been overlooked: 
Porter has played his last game in a Blazers uniform. After 10 great 
seasons, the Blazers will use his salary slot for Sabonis.

No announcement has been made, and the Blazers stoutly deny that they 
have decided what they want to do with Porter. But there is no way that 
the pursuit of Sabonis would have gone this far and become this public 
without an understanding on both sides that Porter's salary slot will be 
the vehicle that brings Sabonis to Portland. Simply put, there is no 
other way to do it unless the Blazers get incredibly lucky and lose an 
expensive player in the expansion draft or trade one for a draft choice.

It's no surprise that Porter has been ignored in the hubbub over Sabonis.
He played his whole career in the shadow of Clyde Drexler, even though
his on-court contributions were at least as important as Drexler's and
his off-court charity work was unmatched until Chris Dudley came to town.
Porter doesn't need the spotlight to shine, and the Blazers, aware of his
intelligence and character, have said that he is welcome to join them 
again when his playing career is over.

European Economics 101

There's no telling exactly how much money Sabonis makes in Europe. His
salary in Spain is less than $2 million, but his taxes are paid by the
Real Madrid team and he gets everything free: house, car, meals in 
restaurants, anything else he can dream up. He also gets another huge 
salary for his "marketing rights" in other European countries, some sort 
of tax dodge that apparently is not uncommon among basketball stars there.

His total salary and benefits supposedly reached $4 million last season,
and he is not interested in taking a pay cut to play for the Blazers.

NBA Economics 102

Here's how Sabonis could get a huge first-year payment under current 
rules.

His initial salary could not be more than $2.6 million, but say the 
Blazers gave him only a $2 million salary and a $3 million signing bonus 
on a five-year contract. Under salary-cap rules, the bonus money can be 
spread over the life of the contract at $600,000 per year. Sabonis can 
get no higher than a 30 percent raise every year, but he would receive 
$5 million in cash right away and the Blazers would stay within the rules.

After a year, they could give him another one-year contract extension for
a huge amount, say $10 million. He wouldn't get that money until his first
contract expired, but his yearly average would be bumped up to the level
he is used to. And again, the Blazers would stay within the rules.
Whether Sabonis is worth that much money is another question. The Blazers
seem to think he is, and remember, they are the ones who will pay Dudley
$24 million over six years and Jerome Kersey more than $4 million next
season.

But can he play?

The consensus among those who have seen Sabonis and know his physical 
limitations, work habits and personality is that he can be a very 
effective NBA center for about 24 minutes per game, maybe fewer. His 
decision not to have surgery on his right foot means that he plays in 
pain and that he easily could break down again. The Blazers went through 
injury agony with their two most talented centers, Bill Walton and Sam 
Bowie, and they could be setting themselves up for more of the same.

Dudley, also once considered injury-prone, started 82 games last season.
His defensive and rebounding prowess and lack of offense makes make him
the opposite of Sabonis. If Dudley stayed at one end of the court and 
Sabonis at the other, together they could be All-Pro.

The visionaries

Remember the smirk on NBA commissioner David Stern's face when he 
announced that the Blazers drafted Sabonis in 1986? That was the pre-
global Stern, back when nobody thought Europeans were tough enough to 
play in the NBA. Portland drafted Drazen Petrovic the same year, and it 
was Petrovic, who came to the NBA in 1989 and became a star after he 
went to New Jersey in 1992, who did so much to break down the 
stereotypes about European players. The Blazers also signed Fernando 
Martin as a free agent in 1986. He played one unhappy season under Mike 
Schuler and returned to Spain. Drafting Sabonis in the first round was 
not a wasted pick, then or now. Drafting Walter Davis Berry 10 spots 
ahead was a terrible waste. The man responsible for drafting Sabonis and 
Petrovic and signing Martin is the same man who thought Moses Malone 
could play pro basketball without attending college -- Bucky Buckwalter. 
It is Buckwalter and his boss, Harry Glickman, who deserve credit for 
pioneering the scouting and drafting of foreign players, something that 
every NBA team does routinely today.